by Patrick O'Mahen

Relevant Policy Background: The Sequester, Tax Cuts and Medicare Cuts

The large tax-cut bills moving through both houses of Congress have all sorts of hidden little evil things in them, like for example jacking up taxes on PhD students by several thousand dollars.[1] But perhaps one of the biggest evil unforeseen consequences is that the bills would automatically trigger $25 billion in cuts to Medicare.

Here's how: In 2011, to end a showdown over the national debt limit, Congress negotiated a law with then-President Obama that instituted automatic budget cuts (a sequester) in response to any new law a future Congress passed that raised the debt further.[2] The Republican tax cut bills do this, raising the projected deficit by $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years to cuts taxes on large business and rich heirs. If the bill pass, the Sequester would automatically take effect and cut $136 billion from non-defense mandatory programs. Medicaid, Social Security and many other income security programs (e.g. unemployment, SNAP) are exempt, but Medicare is subject to cuts of up to 4 percent. That works out to about $25 billion in cuts form 2018.[3]

*Looks dumbfounded* OK, I have lots of questions here. First, did Republicans really fail to realize their own bill did this?

Yes, it appears that way. But remember, this is the same crew that understood Senate rules so badly that their handpicked parliamentarian ruled out of order large portions of their attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act. I also direct you to their attempts to explain their last healthcare bill for their grasp of their own policy proposals.[4]

Right. Now tell me about the $25 BILLION IN FREAKING MEDICARE CUTS! ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

You got me, I AM kidding. There's much, much more than $25 billion in Medicare cuts. Those $25 billion in cuts are just for 2018. The sequester will cut at least that much from the program, and likely considerably more, for each of the next 10 years. And that's not even adjusted for inflation.

So, you're saying that we're looking several hundred billion in Medicare cuts so that multinational businesses can get a permanent tax cut?

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying --- Wait, no it's not, because it' actually even worse. Heirs to fortunes over $10 million would also see a large tax cut because the Senate tax plan cuts the estate tax. Most of these heirs also happen to have large ownership stakes in giant multinational corporations. It's really a win-win for them. Of course, 50 million senior citizens needing health insurance lose, but that's not all that important, right?

You mentioned that the total mandatory non-defense cuts would be $136 billion. Where does the other $111 billion come from?

Everything else, including accounts in the Centers for Disease Control and National Institutes of Health, anti-fraud programs in the department of Health and Human Services, the Department of Education, the EPA, some agricultural subsidies, capital improvement projects in the National Park System, and lots and lots and lots of other places.[5] In fact, all the cuts allowed by the law won't be enough to reach the full $111 billion – it can only reach $85-90 billion.

So, you're saying the Republicans have basically written a tax bill that makes it impossible for them to comply with the terms of a law that they themselves forced on President Obama in 2011?

Yes.

And no one tried to tell them this?

The Republicans did write the bill in secret, refused to hold public hearings to which legislators could listen to expert witnesses, and rushed it through committee markups with little debate after giving legislators and their staffs only a few hours to read the bill.

Fiascos like this tend to happen when you manage the legislative process this way.

This is all insane.

I have observed no evidence that contradicts the above statement.

Can Congress stop this?

Technically, Congress can vote to waive these sequester limits, but it takes 60 votes in the Senate to do so, so they need help from Democrats. Senate Republicans like to think that Democrats will simply waive the limits to save Medicare from cuts for now, despite Republicans telling anyone who will listen that the GOP wants to cut Medicare next year. But Democrats would much, much, prefer to keep reasonable taxes on large corporations and rich people in place so we can both keep Medicare and the rest of the government funded AND not run up the deficit through irresponsible tax cuts.

Lay it out in one point in a sentence:

  • Again, don't worry too much about the causal chain and the complications around legislative procedure. The takeaway is this:
  • If the Republican tax cuts go through, they will cut Medicare by $25 billion in fiscal year 2018, and much more down the road. This will hurt a lot of senior citizens.

Phoning a Congressperson's office[6]

What to do:

  • 1.coordinate the topic, ask and timing with a group
  • 2.Call your Senator
  • 3.Call your other Senator
  • 4.Call your U.S. representative
  • 5.Go ahead and call both their Washington and their local offices
  • 6.Be polite but persistent
  • 7.Be specific to one topic
  • 8.have one ask (e.g. Vote no on the current attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act)
  • 9.take notes on what you are told
  • 10.report the results back to the group and social media

To find contact info for your reps and Senators look here: www.callmycongress.com.

What not to do:

  • 1.Don't e-mail alone
  • 2.Don't merely post on social media
  • 3.Don't call reps who are not yours – they don't care because you can't vote in their district
  • 4.Don't discuss multiple topics – it dilutes your message.

Sample Script:

(note, this is a base, adjust it a little bit if you have a story, or to make the prose more comfortable for you, but keep the central point.)

"Hi, my name is X I'm a constituent of Y, may please speak with the staffer who handles health or Tax policy?" (Or if you're nervous, just say you're calling in to express an opinion on some legislation.)

  • Give your name and address if asked (you don't have to, but doing this confirms you're in their district and gives you credibility)
  • Ask who you are speaking with, record their name and title.

"I'm calling because I oppose the Republican Tax Bill that just passed out of the Finance Committee last week. In particular, I oppose the fact that it will cut Medicare by $25 billion in 2018 and far more in the years after that. I don't think it's right to cut taxes for big businesses and rich people and hurt people's health care."

[If you have a story here – this is a good place to put it, like say you or your parents, or your grandparents are on Medicare)

"Can I count on Senator Y to oppose the Senate Tax bill?" (THIS IS YOUR ASK)

  • Write down answer. Thank them if they say yes. Stand your ground politely but firmly if they hand you a talking point, say "no," or try to hide behind the idea that they can't express and opinion for the Congressperson. For example, some variation of the following should get your point across (see below bold):
  • If they pull the "this bill doesn't cut Medicare" line, tell them that passing the bill will trigger automatic cuts in Medicare because of the Sequester. (More below)

IF "the Senator is still considering their options or "No" say

"I don't think cutting people's health care so rich heirs and big businesses can get tax cuts they don't need is good policy." [MENTION PERSONAL STORY HERE IF YOU HAVE ONE] I think Congressman Y's position is cowardly and I will be telling all my friends and family that he thinks his big donors are more important than common folks."

  • Thank the staffer for their time
  • Report back to the group and post on social media about your encounter. Praise the Congressperson if they commit to protecting the ACA, throw them a rhetorical brickbat if they waffle or say no. If you got a particularly wrongheaded response, write a letter to the editor documenting it.
  • Keep organizing more people to call! (so, like if you know lots of people in Maine, e-mail them and tell them to call!)

Only call your own Senator.

If you live in their states, especially push Moore-Capito (WV), Portman (OH), Murkowski (AK) Collins (ME), Gardner (CO), Collins (ME) and McCain (AZ), Flake (AZ), Corker (TN) and Alexander (TN)

[1] https://www.npr.org/2017/11/14/563879136/house-gop...

[2] Oddly enough, of Obama's three major first-year initiatives, only one, the stimulus, raised the budget deficit by an appreciable amount. And that was meant to counteract a collapsing economy. The other two, the Affordable Care Act and the Dodd-Frank financial regulation bill, were budget-neutral or decreased the deficit.

[3] https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/costestimate/hr1hoyerletter.pdf

[4] https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/20/16333876/republican-senators-graham-cassidy (This one is a doozy)

[5] The lengthy list of programs runs from page 14-29 in this report: https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/omb/sequestration_reports/2018_jc_sequestration_report_may2017_potus.pdf

[6] The Indivisible Guide has several techniques for working a phone call. The script I suggest below is the simplest. They suggest trying to get in touch with a policy staffer, which has the advantage of taking up the time of senior staff members and hitting closer to the representative himself. However, even flooding the zone of junior staffers and interns is useful. See https://www.indivisibleguide.com/ for more